Global Warming Warnings

Any weather event with negative consequences is often attributed to global warming or its latest term, usually by those seeking more public funding.  I conducted a Bing Search for “global warming articles” and, seconds later, it returned 2,560,000 results. There are more that could be found using different words. It would be interesting to see how far back some of those articles go and their predictions of when the world would end. We’re told to follow expert advice no matter the cost.

Houston employs numerous meteorologists across various TV stations who provide daily weather statistics and display footage of any precipitation detected on the radar.  They present a 7-10 day forecast and offer their opinion on any potential events that may occur during that period. Weather is so important that they may talk about it in three different segments to get you to keep watching 3 more minutes of commercials.

This week, we finally had our first 100-degree day this year, and we are in a HEAT WAVE. They are predicting 101 for Thursday, and I noticed the old high for July 24 is 101 from 1954. When I checked the record highs for July, I noticed that every day in July has a record high of 100 or higher, up to 105. Some of those records go back to 1891, when Houston was much smaller with few if any paved roads and few cars to cause the air to be hotter. On July 26, 1954, the high was 105, and that high was also recorded on July 10, 2022.

Back in July 1954, as an eleven-year-old boy, I mowed yards to get some spending money. I used the family two-cycle push mower and got paid a dollar a yard or maybe two dollars if they wanted the flower beds weeded. Most days I wore cut-off jeans, no shirt, shoes, or hat. Nobody had a/c units, and there were few trees in our neighborhood then. Nobody closed their windows or doors unless they were out of town on a trip.

The schools did not have a/c, and school did not start back until the day after Labor Day. In our neighborhood, the kitchens were small, and everyone had gas stoves and small refrigerators with a tiny freezer section. There were no microwave ovens or dishwashers, and only a small amount of counter space. Our moms were the warriors who cooked fresh meals seven days a week, cleaned up and put away after the meals, and received little thanks. They washed our clothes, bedding, and towels, and then ironed our clothes. They swept and dusted the house to get the dust from the unpaved road that blew in the windows. Somehow, they found time to make clothes to save money. They were our live-in nurse and provided a shoulder to listen to our sorrows.

We did not have a TV. I don’t think any of our neighbors had one. There were no “heat alerts” to tell us that it was going to be hot tomorrow; everybody knew that. If it was light outside, the kids would be outside except at mealtimes. If you got thirsty, you would drink out of the garden hose, after letting the water run for a few minutes to keep from getting scalded. Everybody got their vitamin D directly from the sun.

In 1954, the record temperatures were taken in a location not near buildings or objects that would block the airflow or cause the temperatures to be higher, like paved parking lots. It was not in direct sunlight so that more accurate readings could be recorded. Only seven days in July 1954 had any rain: .65 on 7/3, .23 on 7/6, .12 on 7/12, .16 on 7/17, .07 on 7/19, 1.35 on 7/29, and 2.28 on 7/30. Only five days in June had any rain: .05 on 6/20, .04 on 6/21, .20 on 6/22, .91 on 6/23, and .04 on 6/24 We had eight days in August when any rain was measured: .02 on 8/4, .65 on 8/17, .23 on 8/21, 1.09 on 8/22, .06 on 8/23, .01 on 8/24, 1.44 on 8/27, and .39 on 8/28. Only four days in September had any rain: .01 on 9/4, .01 on 9/18, .24 on 9/28, and .23 on 9/30. School started back on Tuesday, September 7, and that was the coolest school day that month at 85, and we had 13 school days of 90 or higher, with 98 on 9/10.

In 1954, there were four of us kids sleeping in two double beds in a bedroom that was about 12’X12’ with room to walk between the beds. A window on the west side and one on the south side of the room. It was hot, but talking about how hot it was did not make it any cooler.

The climate experts are more trained at selling than at proving. The choice of “facts” is determined by the point to be made. What ideas are you trying to present guides your selection criteria. The number of deaths and the total amount of estimated cost to repair are the two main gauges of how severe a storm was. Even those two facts need more information to have a clear comparison. A house located on the same lot destroyed thirty years apart, the current cost of repairs or replacement cannot be used to accurately determine the severity of the storm. Even if you tried to calculate the inflation index, the size of the house and features could cause an apples-to-oranges comparison. Flooding in the Hill Country, what time of the day, how many people were in buildings on that day or night, and how much rain fell during what period are factors that must be part of the discussion.

On July 31, 1976, a slow-moving thunderstorm unleashed 12 to 14 inches of rain in the Big Thompson River basin, particularly near Estes Park, Colorado. This intense rainfall occurred over a short period, leading to a rapid rise in water levels and a devastating flash flood. The floodwaters crested at approximately 30 feet and moved at an average speed of 15 miles per hour. The flood resulted in at least 144 fatalities, with many victims being residents and tourists caught off guard by the sudden surge of water. Additionally, over 250 people were injured, and several others were reported missing. The destruction was extensive, with 418 homes, more than 400 vehicles, and 152 businesses destroyed, leading to damages estimated at nearly $150 million in 2016 USD. The 1976 Big Thompson River flood remains one of the deadliest natural disasters in Colorado’s history, serving as a reminder of the power of nature and the importance of preparedness for such events.

That storm was 49 years ago, and the Texas Hill Country floods were the first occurrence of that magnitude since then. It would be a stretch to say Climate Change is causing more of these events and making them more dangerous.